Increased Critical Fire Weather Concerns for Friday and Saturday

 

The following comes from Phil Badgett, one of the National Weather Service Fire Weather Forecast experts.

 

We have been very dry recently with only 50 percent of our normal April rainfall through the 15th. In addition to not completing green-up yet the fuel moisture levels (1, 10, and 100 hour) are becoming very low. This leaves us susceptible to increasing fire danger if it gets warm and windy with no wetting rain or significant rain.

 

Unfortunately a warm windy pattern seems to be setting up for Friday and Saturday. Pattern recognition points to fire weather concerns for NC as a deepening upper level low pressure system replacing strong high pressure over NC. This will result in increasing westerly winds Fri afternoon through the expected cold frontal passage Saturday. Behind the front wind will become NW. It will be only slightly cooler with the main cool air expected Saturday night (prolonging the windy dry conditions well into the night).

 

The main periods of concern appear to be Friday afternoon and Saturday into Saturday evening (possibly the stronger concern). Since our moisture sources (Gulf and Atlantic) are expected to be cut off with this cold front passage only isolated showers are forecast east of the Blue Ridge with the front. Otherwise it will be dry and getting drier! This will set up a pattern that will create increasing temps Friday (mid to upper 80s) SW to W winds with gusts to 25 mph and very low relative humidity (25% or lower Friday and Saturday afternoons)

 

Gary Curcio with the NCFS has presented research from scientists from the past that point to critical fire weather conditions over NC typically develop when troughs of low pressure develop and deepen over the eastern U.S. with mainly dry frontal passages that coincide with dry conditions often prior to spring green-up. All appear to be criteria that will be met or possibly met this Fri into Sat.

 

Special Weather Statements... Fire Weather Watches... or Red Flag Warnings may be needed Fri into the weekend.

 

Jeff Orrock